Muriel Bowser Declares Victory
On June 22nd, 2022, Muriel Bowser won her second term for DC Mayor. Bowser’s message: she is the next Marion Barry, the only mayor to serve three consecutive terms. During her election night victory, she said: “Tonight we choose a future where we won’t lose our Chocolate City, but we will invest in it, and we will continue to be a city for Black Washingtonians.” from DCist
Mayor Bowser also won with just 49.8% of the vote. As someone who is interested in election data, I wanted to better understand the results of the elections through multiple visualizations.
Across the three visualizations, green will represent Mayor Bowser, blue will represent Robert White, and orange will represent Trayon White.
Here is data from the DC Elections office of the 2022 Primary. I did some simple filtering to narrow it to the Mayor’s election.
| precinct | ward | nvotes | bowser | twhite | rwhite |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 1364 | 608 | 167 | 589 |
| 2 | 2 | 90 | 34 | 2 | 54 |
| 3 | 2 | 571 | 380 | 17 | 174 |
| 4 | 2 | 714 | 467 | 14 | 233 |
| 5 | 2 | 721 | 552 | 8 | 161 |
| 6 | 2 | 669 | 502 | 10 | 157 |
| 7 | 3 | 570 | 366 | 9 | 195 |
| 8 | 3 | 1312 | 967 | 13 | 332 |
| 9 | 3 | 503 | 414 | 3 | 86 |
| 10 | 3 | 816 | 620 | 8 | 188 |
| 11 | 3 | 1292 | 688 | 19 | 585 |
| 12 | 3 | 238 | 179 | 4 | 55 |
| 13 | 2 | 549 | 361 | 5 | 183 |
| 14 | 2 | 945 | 488 | 16 | 441 |
| 15 | 2 | 1185 | 579 | 17 | 589 |
| 16 | 2 | 1324 | 734 | 34 | 556 |
| 17 | 2 | 1397 | 663 | 43 | 691 |
| 18 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 | 5 | 1426 | 621 | 105 | 700 |
| 20 | 1 | 276 | 120 | 21 | 135 |
| 21 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 | 1 | 1594 | 788 | 40 | 766 |
| 23 | 1 | 1045 | 455 | 49 | 541 |
| 24 | 1 | 1144 | 541 | 9 | 594 |
| 25 | 1 | 1797 | 883 | 19 | 895 |
| 26 | 3 | 1456 | 820 | 13 | 623 |
| 27 | 3 | 1301 | 838 | 18 | 445 |
| 28 | 3 | 1186 | 813 | 16 | 357 |
| 29 | 3 | 596 | 382 | 12 | 202 |
| 30 | 3 | 759 | 514 | 7 | 238 |
| 31 | 3 | 1415 | 938 | 15 | 462 |
| 32 | 3 | 1506 | 979 | 19 | 508 |
| 33 | 3 | 1562 | 963 | 16 | 583 |
| 34 | 3 | 1992 | 1041 | 42 | 909 |
| 35 | 1 | 1457 | 606 | 30 | 821 |
| 36 | 1 | 1341 | 508 | 102 | 731 |
| 37 | 1 | 1054 | 448 | 55 | 551 |
| 38 | 1 | 974 | 352 | 54 | 568 |
| 39 | 1 | 1578 | 696 | 52 | 830 |
| 40 | 1 | 1500 | 661 | 44 | 795 |
| 41 | 1 | 1078 | 434 | 48 | 596 |
| 42 | 1 | 691 | 284 | 22 | 385 |
| 43 | 1 | 616 | 248 | 50 | 318 |
| 44 | 5 | 761 | 371 | 104 | 286 |
| 45 | 4 | 850 | 362 | 56 | 432 |
| 46 | 4 | 1107 | 467 | 65 | 575 |
| 47 | 4 | 1287 | 533 | 45 | 709 |
| 48 | 4 | 1114 | 561 | 50 | 503 |
| 49 | 4 | 327 | 115 | 25 | 187 |
| 50 | 3 | 1088 | 673 | 14 | 401 |
| 51 | 4 | 1766 | 1205 | 22 | 539 |
| 52 | 4 | 797 | 582 | 4 | 211 |
| 53 | 4 | 488 | 291 | 22 | 175 |
| 54 | 4 | 845 | 406 | 44 | 395 |
| 55 | 4 | 847 | 388 | 66 | 393 |
| 56 | 4 | 1088 | 480 | 87 | 521 |
| 57 | 4 | 824 | 352 | 55 | 417 |
| 58 | 4 | 745 | 340 | 59 | 346 |
| 59 | 4 | 999 | 471 | 60 | 468 |
| 60 | 4 | 593 | 328 | 50 | 215 |
| 61 | 4 | 612 | 350 | 39 | 223 |
| 62 | 4 | 1766 | 1151 | 30 | 585 |
| 63 | 4 | 1576 | 783 | 68 | 725 |
| 64 | 4 | 924 | 503 | 48 | 373 |
| 65 | 4 | 1051 | 564 | 86 | 401 |
| 66 | 5 | 1881 | 922 | 185 | 774 |
| 67 | 5 | 1215 | 635 | 84 | 496 |
| 68 | 5 | 837 | 383 | 59 | 395 |
| 69 | 5 | 926 | 450 | 63 | 413 |
| 70 | 5 | 608 | 290 | 44 | 274 |
| 71 | 5 | 890 | 467 | 87 | 336 |
| 72 | 5 | 1108 | 483 | 166 | 459 |
| 73 | 5 | 857 | 375 | 61 | 421 |
| 74 | 5 | 1508 | 640 | 152 | 716 |
| 75 | 5 | 1265 | 463 | 114 | 688 |
| 76 | 5 | 463 | 162 | 52 | 249 |
| 77 | 5 | 899 | 371 | 105 | 423 |
| 78 | 5 | 687 | 256 | 122 | 309 |
| 79 | 5 | 379 | 144 | 84 | 151 |
| 80 | 7 | 2334 | 976 | 324 | 1034 |
| 81 | 6 | 872 | 382 | 50 | 440 |
| 82 | 6 | 982 | 427 | 59 | 496 |
| 83 | 6 | 1227 | 510 | 61 | 656 |
| 84 | 6 | 838 | 455 | 17 | 366 |
| 85 | 6 | 1127 | 622 | 20 | 485 |
| 86 | 6 | 631 | 323 | 9 | 299 |
| 87 | 6 | 129 | 69 | 9 | 51 |
| 88 | 6 | 965 | 507 | 19 | 439 |
| 89 | 6 | 1212 | 677 | 14 | 521 |
| 90 | 6 | 606 | 349 | 11 | 246 |
| 91 | 6 | 1478 | 669 | 98 | 711 |
| 92 | 7 | 293 | 107 | 94 | 92 |
| 93 | 7 | 398 | 191 | 93 | 114 |
| 94 | 7 | 507 | 213 | 115 | 179 |
| 95 | 7 | 340 | 135 | 79 | 126 |
| 96 | 7 | 491 | 203 | 132 | 156 |
| 97 | 7 | 311 | 146 | 83 | 82 |
| 98 | 7 | 499 | 244 | 122 | 133 |
| 99 | 7 | 344 | 166 | 74 | 104 |
| 100 | 7 | 519 | 204 | 180 | 135 |
| 101 | 7 | 481 | 221 | 84 | 176 |
| 102 | 7 | 564 | 245 | 161 | 158 |
| 103 | 7 | 799 | 327 | 240 | 232 |
| 104 | 7 | 741 | 285 | 230 | 226 |
| 105 | 7 | 572 | 253 | 145 | 174 |
| 106 | 7 | 775 | 377 | 175 | 223 |
| 107 | 7 | 295 | 133 | 104 | 58 |
| 108 | 7 | 408 | 215 | 44 | 149 |
| 109 | 7 | 419 | 220 | 24 | 175 |
| 110 | 7 | 1232 | 603 | 198 | 431 |
| 111 | 7 | 549 | 270 | 123 | 156 |
| 112 | 8 | 482 | 227 | 107 | 148 |
| 113 | 7 | 791 | 397 | 130 | 264 |
| 114 | 8 | 619 | 237 | 186 | 196 |
| 115 | 8 | 441 | 159 | 197 | 85 |
| 116 | 8 | 654 | 243 | 267 | 144 |
| 117 | 8 | 432 | 145 | 194 | 93 |
| 118 | 8 | 554 | 174 | 250 | 130 |
| 119 | 8 | 417 | 131 | 171 | 115 |
| 120 | 8 | 509 | 179 | 203 | 127 |
| 121 | 8 | 732 | 284 | 283 | 165 |
| 122 | 8 | 389 | 180 | 127 | 82 |
| 123 | 8 | 486 | 219 | 153 | 114 |
| 124 | 8 | 627 | 268 | 208 | 151 |
| 125 | 8 | 795 | 309 | 315 | 171 |
| 126 | 8 | 694 | 263 | 281 | 150 |
| 127 | 6 | 1534 | 778 | 128 | 628 |
| 128 | 6 | 707 | 325 | 51 | 331 |
| 129 | 2 | 2529 | 1300 | 148 | 1081 |
| 130 | 6 | 340 | 189 | 5 | 146 |
| 131 | 6 | 668 | 291 | 30 | 347 |
| 132 | 7 | 408 | 194 | 94 | 120 |
| 133 | 8 | 330 | 175 | 62 | 93 |
| 134 | 8 | 479 | 172 | 202 | 105 |
| 135 | 5 | 994 | 462 | 69 | 463 |
| 136 | 3 | 380 | 189 | 2 | 189 |
| 137 | 1 | 424 | 202 | 12 | 210 |
| 138 | 3 | 1075 | 665 | 19 | 391 |
| 139 | 5 | 1039 | 604 | 107 | 328 |
| 140 | 8 | 1279 | 588 | 166 | 525 |
| 141 | 2 | 892 | 429 | 13 | 450 |
| 142 | 6 | 798 | 413 | 51 | 334 |
| 143 | 2 | 226 | 130 | 3 | 93 |
| 144 | 6 | 897 | 294 | 44 | 559 |
Since raw numbers can only explain so much about the election, I used a couple different data visualization methods to explain how the candidates performed.
Let’s look at total number of votes per precinct in a simple linegraph.

This would give us the impression that Mayor Bowser is the clear and consistent favorite. What if we looked at the percent point break down per precinct?

It looks a little closer. Mayor Bowser and Robert White are neck and neck in a few precincts. Trayon White is the clear favorite in a few. The two gaps are the precincts that don’t report any votes.
One limited aspect of the linechart is that it does not explain how the candidates performed relative to ward position in the city. To map these results geographically, I used lefalet’s chloropleth mapping tool.
Below is a map of dc precincts courtesy of the DC Department of Elections.
As we can see, there tends to be a geographic cluster where each candidate performed well. These choropleths only explain where each candidate did well relative to their best performance. Trayon White’s best performance in one precinct was with 40% of the vote, whereas Mayor Bowser won some precincts with a blowout of close to 80%.